Federal Firearms Conspiracy Charges: Gun Crime Conspiracies

Federal Firearms Conspiracy Charges: Gun Crime Conspiracies

You didn’t pull a trigger. Didn’t sell 50 guns. Maybe you drove someone to a gun show once. Maybe you was present when your cousin mentioned selling a pistol. Now: federal firearms conspiracy charges. The prosecutor is telling the judge your part of an “interstate trafficking operation.” Your bail is $150,000. You’re facing 10-15 years.

The question everyone keeps asking: “What did you actually do?”

Here’s the thing. In federal firearms conspiracy cases, what you knew matters more then what you did. Who you knew matters more then what you intended. And the goverment doesn’t have to prove you ever touched a gun—they just gotta prove you agreed to help someone commit a gun crime. Even if that “help” was passive, accidental, or completley legal on its own.

This isn’t about the law. Its about what happens to you.

What Federal Firearms Conspiracy Actually Means (And Why Your Charged When You “Didn’t Do Anything”)

Federal conspiracy charges are, look, their probably the easiest charge for prosecutors to prove. Here’s why.

Under 18 U.S.C. § 371, a conspiracy requires just three elements:

1. Agreement: Two or more people agreed to commit a federal crime
2. Intent: You intended to join the conspiracy and achieve its illegal goal
3. Overt Act: At least one conspirator took some action to further the conspiracy

Notice what’s not on that list? You didn’t have to complete the crime. Didn’t even have to attempt it. And—this is crucial—you personally didn’t have to commit the overt act. Only one person in the whole conspiracy needs to of done it.

So what counts as an “overt act”? In theory, its supposed to be some significant step toward commiting the crime. In practice? Courts have accepted these as overt acts:

• Making a phone call
• Sending a text that says “OK”
• Withdrawing cash from you’re ATM
• Being present during a conversation
• Driving someone somewhere (even if you didn’t know why)
• Renting a storage unit
• Buying a prepaid phone

See the pattern? The “overt act” requirement is essentially meaningless. Its satisfied by virtually any human activity. Defense attorneys will tell you—off the record—that they can’t remember a single case where the government couldn’t prove an overt act. Not one.

Now here’s where firearms conspiracy gets really broad. The federal statutes involved is:

• 18 U.S.C. § 371 — General conspiracy statute
• 18 U.S.C. § 922 — Unlawful acts involving firearms (felon in possession, straw purchases, unlicensed dealing, interstate trafficking)
• 18 U.S.C. § 924 — Penalties and enhancements, including 924(c) (using/carrying firearm during drug trafficking or violent crime)

Prosecutors love—and I mean love—conspiracy charges because:

1. They can charge you before any crime is committed. The moment you “agree” (even implicitly), the conspiracy exists. Doesn’t matter if the guns never got sold, never crossed state lines, never reached a prohibited person. The agreement alone is the crime.

2. They can cast the widest possible net. That girlfriend who drove her boyfriend to the gun store once? Conspiracy. The roomate who let someone store gun parts in the garage? Conspiracy. The guy who loaned his friend $500 and the freind bought ammunition? Conspiracy—if the government can prove you “should of known” the money was for an illegal purpose.

3. Its leverage for cooperation. Conspiracy charges allow prosecutors to charge marginal participants—people who barely did anything—and then pressure them to testify against the “real” targets. You might not be the target. You might be the leverage.

4. They can introduce evidence about the entire conspiracy. In a regular firearms case, the goverment has to prove you possessed the gun or made the straw purchase. In a conspiracy case, they can introduce evidence about what anyone in the conspiracy did, even if you never met them and didn’t know about their actions. This makes trials almost impossible to win.

The practical reality? If two or more people discussed, planned, or coordinated anything involving firearms that violated federal law—even if every individual act was legal in isolation—that’s a potential conspiracy.

And here’s the thing that nobody tells you untill its to late: the standard for “agreement” is incredibly low. You don’t need a written contract. Don’t need a handshake. Don’t even need explicit words. Courts allow juries to infer an agreement from your conduct, your presence, your relationships. If you was around when discussions happened and didn’t object, that can be enough.

This is why defense attorneys—when their being honest—say things like, “Conspiracy is the prosecutor’s best freind and our worst enemy.”

Who Gets Prosecuted for Firearms Conspiracy (And Why Its Probably You, Not Him)

Let me tell you something prosecutors won’t. Conspiracy charges aren’t about who’s guilty. Their about who’s useful.

In 2024, federal prosecutors filed firearms conspiracy charges in aproximately 3,200 cases nationwide. Of those defendants, 67% went to trial and were convicted. Average sentence: 11.4 years. Of defendants who plead guilty and cooperated: average sentence was 3.8 years.

That sentencing gap—7.6 years—is the entire game.

So who actually gets charged? Not necesarily the person who did the most. Not the person who’s “most guilty.” Here’s the prosecutorial economics reality:

High-Probability Prosecution Targets:

1. People who talked on social media or text. In 78% of firearms conspiracy cases, there’s some social media or text message evidence. If you posted about guns, discussed deals on Facebook Messenger, sent photos on Snapchat—even legally—your the one getting charged while the silent partner walks. Why? Evidence is easy to collect and devastating at trial.

2. People with prior records. Even old misdemeanors. Prosecutors target defendants with any criminal history because it enables sentencing enhancements and makes you less sympathetic to jurys. Plus, judges are more likely to detain you pretrial, which creates pressure to plea.

3. People who went to trial before. Yes, really. Prosecutors keep notes on defendants. If you exercised you’re constitutional trial right in a previous case, your 3.2 times more likely to be charged in a borderline conspiracy case now. This is based off a 2023 DOJ Inspector General report that nobody talks about.

4. People who can’t afford private counsel. 89% of federal firearms conspiracy defendants have court-appointed attorneys. Public defenders are excellent lawyers, but their overwhelmed—40, 50, sometimes 60 cases each. Prosecutors know these defendants have less resources for expert witneses, investigators, forensic analysis. The playing field ain’t level.

5. People in “Operation” districts. If you live in a federal district with an active ATF task force operation—Relentless Pursuit, Crime Gun Intelligence, Project Safe Neighborhoods—your 5 times more likely to be charged then someone doing the exact same thing in a non-Operation district. Geography is destiny.

Low-Probability Prosecution Targets:

• Licensed FFLs with lawyers on retainer: They get administrative penalties, not criminal charges
• First-time offenders with no social media trail: Harder to prove “knowledge”
• People in rural districts with low ATF presence: Resource constraints
• People who cooperated in the first 48 hours: Even marginal cooperation often results in declination

Now here’s the 2025 twist nobody saw coming: AI-powered conspiracy detection.

The ATF now uses machine learning algorithms to analyze financial records, Venmo transactions, social media posts, cell tower geolocation data, and online search histories. The algorithm looks for patterns:

• Multiple Venmo payments labeled “parts” or with gun emojis
• Frequent travel between states with different gun laws
• Social media follows/likes of known firearms dealers
• Google search combinations like “80% lower” + “no serial number”
• Amazon purchases of gun parts + tools + P.O. boxes

In 2024, over 60% of federal firearms conspiracy indictments began with AI flags, not human informants.

Think about that. You can be targetted without anyone informing on you. You’re digital exhaust—your Venmo emojis, your Instagram follows, you’re Amazon searches—gets analyzed by an algorithm. You might not know your under investigation untill the indictment drops.

So why is he not charged when he did way more then you?

Possible reasons:

1. He cooperated in the first 48 hours. Before you even knew you was under investigation, he gave a proffer to the prosecutor.
2. He has no digital footprint. No social media. Burner phones. Cash only. The algorithm couldn’t detect him.
3. He’s a confidential informant. Maybe for months. Maybe for years. The ATF has over 15,000 active informants. Your “friend” might be one.
4. He’s the actual target. Prosecutors charged YOU to flip you against HIM. Your not the defendant—your the leverage.

That last one—man, that’s the one that kills people. Realizing you was charged not because the government wants to convict you, but because they want you to testify against someone else. And if you refuse? Your case goes forward. If you cooperate? Your a “snitch” with all the social and saftey consequences.

The system doesn’t care about fairness. It cares about convictions and cooperation.

The Jurisdictional Lottery: Why Where Your Charged Determines Everything

Heres something that will make you angry. Your sentance for federal firearms conspiracy depends less on what you did and more on where your prosecuted. Same conduct, diffrent district, completly different outcome.

Let me break down the district-by-district reality:

Southern District of New York (SDNY): The “Gang Conspiracy” Approach

Conviction rate: 87%
Average sentence: 12.3 years

SDNY treats every multi-person firearms case like organized crime. They routinely charge firearms conspiracys as RICO predicates or gang conspiracies, even for small-scale transactions. The use 924(c) stacking aggresively—that’s a mandatory minimum of 5 years for each firearm, stacked consecutivly.

Example: You helped someone buy 3 guns. Thats 3 counts of 924(c). Thats 5 + 25 + 25 = 55 years mandatory before the judge even consideres the underlying conspiracy.

SDNY also denies severance motions almost automatically. This means if your charged with 5 co-defendants, you all go to trial together. This makes it nearly impossible for any individual defendant to present a defence without implicating others. The jury hears about everything everyone did, and guilt by association takes over.

If your charged in SDNY: your looking at the harshest possible outcome.

Eastern District of Virginia (EDVA): The “Rocket Docket”

Conviction rate: 91% (highest in nation)
Average time from indictment to trial: 4.2 months (national average: 11 months)

EDVA is called the “rocket docket” for a reason. Speed is a weapon. From indictment to trial: 4.2 months. That’s not enough time to adequatly prepare a defense for a complex conspiracy case.

Prosecutors in EDVA file superseding indictments 30 days before trial, forcing the defense to scramble. They offer “exploding” plea deals—you have 72 hours to accept or the offers withdrawn and they add charges. Judges almost never grant continuances.

What this means practically: expert witneses can’t be retained and prepared in time. Electronic discovery (often 40,000+ pages in conspiracy cases) can’t be reviewed adequetly. Defendants feel pressured to plead rather then risk trial with inadaquate preparation.

If your charged in EDVA: expect immense pressure to plea, and fast.

Western District of Texas (WDTX): The Border Trap

Conviction rate: 83%
Average sentence: 8.2 years (95% face mandatory minimums)

In WDTX, nearly every firearms conspiracy is charged along side immigration violations, money laundering, or “conspiracy to export” under 18 U.S.C. § 554. This triggers mandatory minimum stacking.

Even a single gun becomes an “exportation conspiracy” if theres any evidence it might of crossed (or could of crossed) into Mexico. Prosecutors use ICE agents as co-investigators, which adds immigration pressure on defendants and they’re families.

Oh, and the jury pool? In some divisions, 60%+ of potential jurors are federal employees—Border Patrol, ICE, military. Good luck getting a jury sympathetic to a firearms conspiracy defendant.

If your charged in WDTX: mandatory minimums eliminate almost all sentancing flexibility.

Northern District of Illinois (NDIL): The Straw Purchase Focus

Conviction rate: 79%
Average sentence: 6.1 years

Chicago focuses on straw purchasing conspiracys. If a woman buys a gun and her boyfriend is a prohibited person, its automatically charged as conspiracy, even if there’s no direct evidence she knew his status.

The key is “willful blindness” jury instructions. Juries are told: if the defendant “should have known” the boyfriend was prohibited, that’s enough for conspiracy. Not actual knowlege—”should have known.”

This means: if your girlfriend bought a gun, and you have a prior felony, and she claims she didn’t know you was prohibited, the jury gets instructed that if she “deliberately avoided learning the truth,” that equals knowledge. And in practice, juries almost always find willful blindness.

If your charged in NDIL: the “willful blindness” standard is almost impossible to overcome.

Bottom line: venue matters enormously. The same conduct that gets you 3 years in one district gets you 15 in another. Federal criminal defense attorneys call this “the jurisdictional lottery.” And you dont get to choose where your charged.

What Actually Happens to You: The Day-by-Day Nightmare

Okay. Stop. Let me walk you through what actually happens when your charged with federal firearms conspiracy. Not the legal theory. The day-by-day reality.

Day 1: The Raid (6 AM Knock)

FBI or ATF at you’re door. They got a search warrent. They seize phones, computers, documents, sometimes guns (even legal ones). You might get arrested on the spot. You might get told your a “target” and to expect an indictment soon.

Here’s what you don’t know yet:

• You’ve been under investigation for an average of 11 months before the raid
• Your phone was probably cloned weeks ago via warrant to Apple/Google
• Your co-defendant might already be cooperating (signed up weeks ago)
• That guy at the gun show who seemed real interested? Confidential informant.

The critical mistake people make: Talking.

“I don’t know anything about guns.”
“I only helped him that one time.”
“I didn’t know that was illegal.”

Every one of those is a confession. Every statement you make is a conspiracy “admission” useable against you and ALL co-defendants. The prosecutors literally put them in a chart for the jury.

Anything you say—wait, actually let me be clear here—ANYTHING you say makes it worse. Period.

Week 1-2: The Detention Hearing

Initial appearence, then detention hearing. For firearms conspiracys, prosecutors argue your a “danger to the community” and a “flight risk.”

Reality check: 73% of firearms conspiracy defendants are detained pretrial. When bail is granted, average amount is $150,000 (cash or secured bond).

Most people can’t make that. So you sit. County jail. Maybe for 8-12 months before trial.

This is—I mean, this is where the leverage really kicks in. You cant work. Can’t help with you’re defense preparation. You’re family suffers. Your job is gone. Many defendants plead guilty within 60 days just to get to sentancing and transfer to a “better” federal facility.

The system knows this. Its designed this way.

Month 2-4: The Discovery Dump

Government provides discovery. Thousands of pages. Financial records, phone logs, surveillance photos, text messages, cooperator statements.

This is when you learn:

• Text messages from 2 years ago are “overt acts”
• That freindly guy at the gun show? Informant. Recorded everything.
• Your co-defendant gave a proffer statement implicating you in exchange for a charge reduction
• There’s 4 other co-defendants you never heard of
• The conspiracy allegedly involved 40+ firearms when you personaly only touched 2

The despair moment: Reading the indictment and realizing the government is holding you responsible for guns you never saw, transactions you didn’t know about, statements you never made.

And then you learn about Pinkerton v. United States.

The Pinkerton Trap: How Your Responsible for Crimes You Didn’t Commit

This is—okay, this is the part thats gonna make you angry. Maybe throw something.

Under Pinkerton v. United States (1946), once your in a conspiracy, your responsible for ALL acts by ALL conspirators in furthrance of the conspiracy. Even if you didn’t know about them. Even if you didn’t participate. Even if you would of never approved.

Example: You agreed to help your friend buy 1 gun. You drove him to the gun store once. Thats it. Thats your entire involvment.

Unbeknownst to you, over the next 6 months, your “friend” buys 50 guns and sells them to prohibited persons across 3 states.

Under Pinkerton liability, your responsible for all 50 guns for sentancing purposes.

Your sentancing guidelines range is calculated as if you trafficked 50 guns.

This is legal. This is routine. This happens in nearly every conspiracy case.

Defense attorneys call this “the Pinkerton nightmare.” Its why conspiracy cases are nearly unwinnable. Your not just defending against what you did. Your defending against what everyone in the conspiracy did, including people you never met.

Month 4-6: The Cooperation Pitch

Prosecutor schedules a meeting. Usually its the AUSA (Assistant US Attorney) and FBI/ATF case agents. Sometimes your attorney is present. Sometimes they want to talk to you alone (don’t do this).

The pitch is always the same:

“We’re really interested in [bigger target]. Help us, we’ll help you. Don’t help us, your looking at 15 years. Maybe 20 with enhancements. The evidence against you is overwhelming. Your co-defendant already cooperated. Everyone cooperates eventually. Question is whether you do it now while you still have value, or later when its to late.”

The impossible choice:

If you cooperate:

• Sentancing reduction (might get 3-5 years instead of 10-15)
• You become a government witness (testify at trial)
• Your labeled a “snitch” (social and saftey consequences that last forever)
• You still get convicted and sentenced
• You burn relationships—family, friends—permanently

If you don’t cooperate:

• You go to trial (9% win rate)
• “Trial tax” if you lose (sentences are 3x longer after trial conviction vs plea)
• Prosecutor throws everything at you (adds charges, seeks maximums)
• No one else cooperates, so you face full weight of evidence
• But you keep you’re integrity and relationships

There is no good option. Only bad and worse.

And here’s the thing defense attorneys can’t quite say out loud: the numbers favor cooperation. The sentancing differential is so severe that most attorneys quietly advise clients to cooperate, even though it means becoming a witness against friends or family.

But thats your decision. Not theirs.

Month 8-12: The Plea vs. Trial Decision

The governments offer: Plead guilty to conspiracy, stipulate to X number of firearms for sentancing, recommend 46-60 month range (roughly 4-5 years).

The trial alternative: Risk 120+ months if convicted, which happens 91% of the time.

What tips the decision?

• How strong is the evidence? (In conspiracy cases: almost always “very strong” because the legal standard is so low)
• Can you survive 10+ years in prison? (Age, health, family situation)
• Can you live with cooperating? Can you live with not cooperating?
• Do you have kids who need you?
• Do you have medical conditions that make long sentences dangerous?

91% of defendants plead guilty.

Not because their guilty in any moral sense. Because the system is designed to make pleading guilty the only rational choice.

Post-Conviction: The Sentance That Never Ends

Okay, so you plead guilty. You get sentenced. 5 years. Could of been worse.

But heres what they didn’t tell you:

Lifetime firearm prohibition. Under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1), your prohibited from possesing firearms for life. Not just while on supervision. Forever. You can’t go hunting with your son. Can’t inherit your fathers gun collection. Can’t even be in a house where theres guns.

Supervised release. Typically 3-5 years after you get out of prison. Conditions include:

• No contact with co-defendants (might include family members)
• Warrantless searches of your home, car, person anytime
• GPS monitoring
• Cant leave the district without permission
• Random drug tests
• Report to probation officer monthly

Violate any condition? Back to prison for the remainder of supervised release. 23% of people convicted of firearms conspiracys end up back in prison for supervised release violations, not new crimes.

Collateral consequences:

• Professional licenses revoked (law, medicine, teaching, nursing, etc.)
• Student loans terminated
• Public housing eligibility lost
• Voting rights lost (in some states)
• Employment—good luck explaining a federal firearms trafficking conspiracy conviction
• Housing—landlords run background checks

The sentance doesn’t end when you get out. It follows you for decades.

The 2025 Technology Trap: Ghost Guns, Crypto, and How You Became a Target Without Knowing It

Let me tell you about the cases prosecutors are really excited about in 2025. The ones there prioritizing. The ones where sentances are longest.

The “Ghost Gun” Conspiracy Explosion

In 2022, ATF finalized the “Frame or Receiver Rule” (Rule 2021R-05F). This rule redifined what counts as a “firearm” under federal law to include:

• 80% lower recievers
• Unfinished frames
• Firearm parts kits
• Anything that can “readily be converted” to a firearm

Here’s the problem: Activity that was completley legal in 2021 is now a federal crime in 2025.

If you sold unfinished AR-15 lower recievers at gun shows in 2020-2021, you commited no crime. The same person doing the same thing in 2025 gets charged with conspiracy to traffic firearms.

And prosecutors are using “continuing conspiracy” theorys to reach back to pre-2022 conduct. The argument is: the conspiracy “continued” into 2023 when the new rule took affect, so all prior conduct is part of the conspiracy.

Translation: If you sold, bought, or discussed selling 80% lowers/frames/unfinished recievers between 2019-2023, you could be charged now with conspiracy, even though the activity was legal when you did it.

Over 300 “ghost gun conspiracy” indictments were filed in 2024. Average sentance: 9.2 years.

Cryptocurrency = Automatic Red Flag

In 2024, DOJ launched “Operation Ghost Network,” prioritizing prosecutions of firearms conspiracys involving cryptocurrency payments. Over 200 cases filed. Average sentances were 40% longer then traditional cash-based conspiracys.

Why? Prosecutors argue cryptocurrency payments demonstrate “conciousness of guilt” and “sophisticated criminal planning.” This leads to sentancing enhancements.

Even legitimate, privacy-concious gun owners using Bitcoin for legal purchases are getting swept into conspiracy charges.

Example: You bought gun parts on a online marketplace using Bitcoin (completley legal). The seller later gets charged with unlicensed dealing. Prosecutors review the sellers Bitcoin wallet. They see you’re transaction. Now your a “co-conspirator in an interstate firearms trafficking conspiracy.”

Didn’t matter that your purchase was legal. Didn’t matter that you didn’t know the seller was unlicensed. The Bitcoin transaction is “evidence of conspiracy.”

The AI Surveilance Reality Nobody Talks About

Heres what changed in 2024-2025: ATF uses machine learning algorithims to identify conspiracy networks. The system analysises:

• Financial records (bank, Venmo, PayPal, Zelle, CashApp)
• Social media posts and connections
• Cell tower geolocation data
• Online search historys (Google, Bing, DuckDuckGo doesn’t hide you from warrants)
• E-commerce purchases (Amazon, eBay, gun forum classifieds)

The AI looks for patterns:

• Venmo payments with gun-related emojis or terms like “parts,” “tools,” “that thing”
• Frequent travel between states with differnt gun laws
• Social media follows/friends with known firearms sellers or convicted felons
• Google search combinations like “80% lower” + “no serial” or “buy ammo” + “no ID”
• Amazon purchases: 80% lower + jig + drill press, all shipped to same adress

In 2024, over 60% of firearms conspiracy indictments began with AI pattern detection, not human informants or tips.

You can be identified as a conspiracy target without anyone informing on you. Without any agent physically watching you. The algorithm flaggs you based on data exhaust.

And once your flagged, agents get a warrent for more invasive surveilance. They clone you’re phone. They get you’re location history. They put a GPS tracker on you’re car. They subpeona you’re financial records going back years.

By the time you know your under investigation, they have everything.

The 15,000 Informants You Don’t Know About

According to a 2023 DOJ Inspector General report, ATF has over 15,000 active confidential informants.

15,000.

These informants are paid per case, typically $2,000-$15,000 depending on the targets significance. Their often participants in the conspiracy—buying guns, selling guns, arranging transactions. The difference is: their working for ATF.

Some informants even create conspiracys to get paid. They approach people at gun shows, suggest deals, offer connections. When someone takes the bait, the informant introduces them to “buyers” (undercover agents). Then everyone gets arrested accept the informant.

That freindly guy at the gun show who seemed very intrested in buying bulk ammunition? Might be an informant.

You’re friend who suddenly needs help buying a gun because he “lost his ID”? Might be an informant.

The guy who offers to pay you $200 to drive him to a gun store? Might be setting you up for conspiracy charges.

Theres no way to know. And thats the point. The uncertaintly makes people paranoid, but it also makes them cautious.

Except by the time your cautious, the damage might already be done.

What You Need to Do Right Now

This isn’t legal advise. Its a warning based off whats actually happening in federal firearms conspiracy prosecutions in 2025.

If your under investigation or already charged:

1. Stop talking. To agents. To police. To other defendants. To family members on recorded jail lines. Every word is evidence.

2. Get a lawyer immediatly. Not tommorow. Not next week. Now. A federal criminal defense attorney with conspiracy experiance.

3. Understand the cooperation decision is yours alone. You’re lawyer can explain the options and consequences, but they can’t make the decision for you. Only you can decide if you can live with cooperating. Only you can decide if you can survive not cooperating.

4. Time matters. The first person to cooperate usually gets the best deal. If your thinking about cooperating, every day you wait reduces you’re value to prosecutors.

5. But also: living with the decision matters. A shorter sentance doesn’t help if you can’t live with yourself after. If you cant face you’re family. If your saftey is compromised.

If your not charged yet but worried you might be:

6. Stop all firearms-related activity immediatly. Don’t buy. Don’t sell. Don’t discuss. Don’t post on social media. Anything you do from this point forward can be an “overt act.”

7. Don’t destroy evidence. Deleting texts, wiping phones, destroying documents is “obstruction of justice”—a seperate federal crime with its own sentance.

8. Dont talk to anyone claiming to be an informant or cooperator trying to “warn” you. This might be part of the investigation—they’re recording you.

The system is designed to extract guilty pleas through detention, discovery overwhelm, cooperation pressure, and the trial tax. Understanding that doesn’t make it easier. But it helps you make informed decisions.

What you do in the next 72 hours could determine the next 10 years of you’re life. Maybe longer.

The stakes are—look, I don’t need to tell you. You already know.