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Federal Armed Robbery Hobbs Act Robbery Defense
Contents
- 1 What Makes a Robbery “Federal” Under the Hobbs Act?
- 2 Federal vs. State: Why Federal Charges Are Exponentially Worse
- 3 Sentencing Reality: The Math No One Explains
- 4 Cooperation: The Math of Betrayal
- 5 Decisions That Matter in the First 72 Hours
- 6 What Your Defense Attorney Won’t Tell You (But Should)
- 7 The Decision Timeline: What Happens When
Your sitting in a federal interrogation room. The agents across from you just said “Hobbs Act robbery”—and you have no idea what that means, except you know its bad. Really bad. This wasn’t suppose to be federal. You thought this was a state case, something that would stay local, but now the FBI is involved and the penalties your facing just got exponentially worse then anything you imagined. The agent’s telling you about interstate commerce, and your thinking: what does that even mean? I robbed a corner store, not a federal building.
Here’s the thing prosecutors won’t tell you: the interstate commerce element of the Hobbs Act is shockingly easy to prove. Did the store sell products from another state? Process credit cards? Have a bank account? That’s enough. The federal government just claimed jurisdiction over you’re case, and now your looking at federal sentencing guidelines that are way, way worse then state court. No parole. 85% mandatory service time. And if a gun was involved? Your probably looking at a 7-year mandatory minimum that runs consecutive—meaning on top of—whatever else you get.
The next 72 hours are critical. What you say, what you consent to, who you identify—these decisions can’t be undone. Most defendants make mistakes in this window that destroy they’re defense before it even starts. By the time they retain a federal attorney, its often to late.
What Makes a Robbery “Federal” Under the Hobbs Act?
The Hobbs Act—18 U.S.C. § 1951—is the federal statute that makes it a crime to commit robbery or extortion that affects interstate or foreign commerce “in any way or degree.” And that last part? That’s where defendants get trapped.
Prosecutors don’t have to prove the victim was personally involved in interstate commerce. They don’t have to show that you’re actions had a major impact on commerce. They just have to show some effect—even a de minimis one—and that’s enough for federal jurisdiction.
The elements prosecutors must prove beyond reasonable doubt are:
- The defendant knowingly and willfully committed a robbery (or attempted to)
- Property was taken from another person’s presence against there will through force or threat of force
- The robbery obstructed, delayed, or affected interstate or foreign commerce in any way or degree
Its that third element that seems like it should be your defense—but it almost never works. Courts have held that robbing a small business that bought inventory from out-of-state suppliers satisfies the commerce element. In United States v. Collins (2d Cir. 2010), the court found that merely depleting the victim’s assets affected commerce because it reduced they’re future purchasing power. That’s how broad this is.
Look, here’s the deal: if the business had a credit card machine, bought products that crossed state lines, or had a bank account that cleared checks through the federal banking system, prosecutors can prove interstate commerce. Your corner store robbery? The store bought candy bars from a distributor in New Jersey. That’s interstate commerce. The gas station? The fuel came from out-of-state refineries. That’s enough.
The pharmacy? Prescription drugs crossed state lines. Federal jurisdiction.
Defense attorneys waste thousands of dollars filing motions to dismiss based off challenges to the commerce element. I’ve seen it happen. The motions get denied. The commerce element stands. And the defendant just spent there pretrial legal budget on a motion that had maybe a 2% chance of success. There are better places to focus you’re defense resources—like identification, intent, or Fourth Amendment search issues—but many lawyers don’t tell clients this until after the commerce motion fails.
Its also worth understanding the difference between robbery and extortion under the Hobbs Act, because prosecutors can charge either. Robbery is taking property by force without consent. Extortion is obtaining property with “consent” that’s induced by wrongful use of force or fear. The distinction matters for how prosecutors prove there case and what defenses are available. If they charged extortion but the evidence shows you took property without any consent—even coerced consent—that could be a charging error worth exploiting.
Common examples of Hobbs Act violations include:
- Gas station and convenience store robberies (products cross state lines)
- Pharmacy robberies (controlled substances are federally regulated and cross state lines)
- Restaurant robberies (food supplies from multiple states)
- Carjackings were the vehicle or parts originated out-of-state
- Robberies of drug dealers (drugs typically crossed state lines, even though there illegal)
Once the FBI gets involved, the evidence against you typically multiplies. They have resources state prosecutors don’t: cell site location data, financial records subpoenas, cooperating witnesses who’ve already been flipped, video surveillance from multiple sources coordinated into timelines, and even Title III wiretaps if your part of a crew.
What looked like a weak state case with maybe one eyewitness becomes an overwhelming federal case with six months of FBI investigation behind it. This is why so many defendants who thought they could win at trial end up pleading guilty—the evidence gap between state and federal prosecution is massive.
Federal vs. State: Why Federal Charges Are Exponentially Worse
Most defendants don’t understand just how much worse federal court is compared to state court until its to late. Your not just facing tougher prosecutors and longer sentences—your facing a completely different system with rules that are designed to produce convictions and long prison terms.
Here’s what you loose when you’re case goes federal:
No Parole: Federal sentences require 85% mandatory service time. In state court, you might be eligible for parole after serving 50% of you’re sentence, sometimes less with good behavior credits. In federal court, there’s no parole. You serve 85% minimum, and the remaining 15% is “good time” that can be taken away for disciplinary infractions.
A 20-year federal sentence means 17 years minimum. A 20-year state sentence might mean 10 years with parole.
Do the math on that. Its an additional 7 years in prison for the exact same sentence length. And that’s assuming you don’t loose good time.
Bail Reform Act Detention: Under the federal Bail Reform Act, defendants charged with crimes of violence face a presumption of detention. The burden shifts to you to prove your not a danger and not a flight risk.
In practise, federal judges in the Southern District of New York (SDNY) and Eastern District of New York (EDNY) grant bail in maybe 10-15% of armed robbery cases. Compare that to state court, where bail is presumptively available and judges routinely set monetary bail or release on supervised conditions.
Why does this matter? Because negotiating a plea from jail is completely different then negotiating while your free. Defendants who are detained pretrial accept plea offers they wouldn’t accept if they was free—not because the deals are good, but because the psychological toll of pretrial detention is devastating. The system knows this. Prosecutors knows this.
Your sitting in MDC Brooklyn or MCC Manhattan for 8, 10, 12 months waiting for trial, and that plea offer that seemed unacceptable starts looking more reasonable every day. Studies show detained defendants plead guilty at higher rates and accept longer sentences then defendants who are released.
At the end of the day, detention is a tool prosecutors use to pressure pleas.
Federal Sentencing Guidelines: While technically “advisory” since United States v. Booker (2005), the federal sentencing guidelines still drive outcomes in most cases. Judges in SDNY and EDNY vary downward from the guidelines in only about 15-20% of cases, and usually by minimal amounts.
The “advisory” label gives defendants false hope that judges have discretion—they do, but they rarely use it in meaningful ways.
Loss of Alternative Sentencing: State courts offer alternatives like drug treatment courts, mental health courts, split sentences (part prison, part probation), and shock incarceration programs. Federal court offers none of these. Your either going to trial or pleading guilty and going to federal prison. There’s no “alternative” track for first-time offenders or defendants with substance abuse issues.
The federal system doesn’t do rehabilitation—it does incarceration.
Geographic Displacement: Federal prisoners can be designated to facilities anywhere in the country. State prisoners typically stay within the state system, making family visits possible. Federal defendants from New York often end up in facilities in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, or even further. This destroys family connections and makes reentry exponentially harder.
Can Your Case Be Sent Back to State Court? Almost never. Once federal prosecutors claim jurisdiction, state prosecutors don’t challenge it. Why would they? Federal conviction rates are higher (around 90% of cases result in guilty pleas or convictions), sentences are longer, and it removes a case from there docket.
The state prosecutor might have had a strong case ready to go, but they’re not going to fight the FBI for jurisdiction. The state-to-federal pipeline is irreversible in practise.
There’s one exception: if you cooperate early and provide substantial assistance, federal prosecutors might decline to prosecute and let the state handle it. But that requires cooperation before you’re indicted federally, which means you have maybe a 2-3 week window after arrest. Miss that window, and your stuck in federal court.
Also worth noting: SDNY vs. EDNY prosecutorial differences matter. The Eastern District (Brooklyn) handles more robbery cases and has higher caseloads, which statistically makes them more willing to negotiate plea deals to clear dockets. The Southern District (Manhattan) takes fewer cases but prosecutes them aggressively with more resources.
If you’re case is in SDNY, your facing prosecutors who have more time to prepare and are less pressured to deal. Venue isn’t something you control, but its something you need to understand when evaluating plea offers.
Sentencing Reality: The Math No One Explains
Lets talk about the actual numbers, because this is were defendants get blindsided. Most articles mention “up to 20 years” for Hobbs Act robbery, but they don’t explain how federal sentencing actually works.
The Hobbs Act itself provides for up to 20 years imprisonment. But that’s just the statutory maximum—its not what determines you’re sentence. What determines your sentence is the federal sentencing guidelines calculation, and if a firearm was involved, the mandatory minimum under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c).
Here’s how the guidelines work:
The base offense level for robbery under U.S.S.G. § 2B3.1 is 20. That’s your starting point. From their, prosecutors add enhancements:
- Firearm Enhancement: If a firearm was possessed, add 5 levels. If it was brandished (displayed or pointed), add 6 levels. If it was discharged, add 7 levels.
- Loss Amount: If the loss was more then $10,000, add 2 levels. More then $25,000? Add 4 levels. The enhancement increases with the loss amount.
- Injury Enhancement: If the victim sustained bodily injury, add 2 levels. Serious bodily injury? Add 4 levels. Permanent or life-threatening injury? Add 6 levels.
- Number of Victims: If their was 2-9 victims, add 2 levels. 10-49 victims? Add 4 levels.
- Restraint of Victim: If the victim was physically restrained, add 2 levels.
Lets do an example. Your charged with robbing a pharmacy. Base offense level: 20. You had a gun and pointed it at the pharmacist: +6 levels (now at 26). The loss was $30,000 in cash and oxycodone: +4 levels (now at 30). The pharmacist suffered minor injuries when you pushed them: +2 levels (now at 32). You restrained the pharmacist by zip-tying there hands: +2 levels (now at 34).
A level 34 offense with a Criminal History Category I (no prior record) results in a guideline range of 151-188 months—that’s 12.5 to 15.6 years. And that’s before the 924(c) mandatory minimum, which we’ll get to.
But wait—their’s a way to reduce the guidelines: acceptance of responsibility. Under U.S.S.G. § 3E1.1, if you plead guilty and “accept responsibility” for you’re actions, you get a 2-level reduction (or 3 levels if you plead early).
So in the example above, if you pled guilty, your offense level drops to 31 or 30, and the guideline range becomes 108-135 months or 97-121 months.
Here’s the trap: you generally can’t get acceptance of responsibility if you go to trial and loose. The guidelines explicitly state that exercising your trial right means your not “accepting responsibility.” So the sentencing delta between pleading guilty and going to trial is massive—often 4-7 years difference.
Its not technically a “trial penalty,” but functionally, it is. And defendants need to understand this math before rejecting plea offers.
Now lets talk about the 924(c) enhancement, because this is were sentences become absolutely crushing. 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) imposes mandatory minimum sentences for using or carrying a firearm during a crime of violence:
- Possessing a firearm: 5 years mandatory minimum
- Brandishing a firearm: 7 years mandatory minimum
- Discharging a firearm: 10 years mandatory minimum
And here’s the critical part: this sentence runs consecutive—meaning on top of, not concurrent with—the Hobbs Act sentence.
So in the pharmacy robbery example above, if you pled guilty, you’d get 97-121 months for the Hobbs Act robbery, plus 84 months (7 years) for brandishing the firearm. That’s a total of 181-205 months, or roughly 15-17 years.
And it gets worse. If your charged with multiple 924(c) counts (because you committed multiple robberies), the mandatory minimums stack. First 924(c) count: 7 years. Second count: 25 years consecutive. That’s 32 years just from the 924(c) counts, before adding the Hobbs Act sentences.
Defendants often ask: didn’t the First Step Act reform these mandatory minimums? The answer is no—not for 924(c). The First Step Act (2018) reduced some mandatory minimums and made certain sentence reductions retroactive, but it specifically excluded 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) stacking provisions.
The “reform” narrative doesn’t apply to armed robbery defendants. Your still facing the old, draconian mandatory minimums. This is a reality gap most defendants don’t understand until sentencing.
One more thing: the federal sentencing guidelines are technically “advisory” since United States v. Booker, which means judges can vary from them. But in practise, SDNY and EDNY judges stick pretty close to the guidelines. They might vary downward by 10-20%, but rarely more.
Don’t count on a judge “saving” you with a below-guidelines sentence—it happens, but its not common enough to bet you’re future on.
Cooperation: The Math of Betrayal
Lets talk about the decision no one wants to face: should you cooperate against co-defendants? Should you become a “snitch”? Should you “rat”?
I’m not going to tell you what to do—thats between you, you’re attorney, and you’re conscience—but I am going to explain the math, because understanding the economics of cooperation might change how you think about this.
Here’s the thing: cooperation value depreciates over time. Its not a fixed asset. The earlier you cooperate, the more its worth. The later you wait, the less prosecutors need you. And by the time your convicted and thinking about Rule 35(b) post-conviction cooperation, your value has dropped to almost nothing.
Heres the cooperation depreciation curve:
Week 1-2 (Pre-Arrest of Co-Defendants): This is peak value. If you cooperate before other arrests are made, you can provide information that helps the FBI make cases against people they don’t have yet. Prosecutors will offer 50-60% sentence reductions for this level of cooperation—sometimes even agreements to decline federal prosecution entirely and let the state handle it (which, as we discussed, is exponentially better for you).
You might also get use immunity or a cooperation agreement that caps your sentence exposure.
But heres the catch: you have to move fast. Most defendants don’t even have a lawyer yet in Week 1-2. There still processing the shock of arrest, there waiting for retained counsel or for the federal public defender to be appointed, and by the time they’re ready to make strategic decisions, the window is closing.
Month 1-2 (Post-Arrest, Pre-Indictment): Value is declining but still significant. If you cooperate after arrests but before the grand jury returns indictments, prosecutors might offer 30-40% sentence reductions through a substantial assistance departure under U.S.S.G. § 5K1.1.
You’ll probably have to proffer (tell prosecutors everything in a “Queen for a Day” session), wear a wire, or testify before the grand jury. And once you proffer, your locked into that narrative—if you testify differently at trial, prosecutors can use your proffer statement to impeach you, even though you have proffer immunity.
This is the proffer “gotcha” that destroys defenses. You cant be prosecuted based on what you say in a proffer session, but prosecutors can use it against you if you testify inconsistently at trial. That means if you profferred and said “I was there and I had the gun,” you can’t later claim mistaken identity or that you weren’t the shooter.
Your proffer locked you in. Most defense attorneys don’t adequately warn clients about this until its too late.
Month 3-6 (Post-Indictment, Pre-Trial): Value is dropping fast. By now, most of you’re co-defendants have been arrested, some have already pled guilty, and prosecutors have built there case. If you cooperate at this stage, your looking at maybe 20-30% sentence reductions—and thats only if you have something valuable to offer.
If your testimony is cumulative (prosecutors already have other witnesses saying the same thing), your cooperation might be worth 10-15%.
Post-Conviction (Rule 35(b)): Value is almost zero. After your convicted—whether by plea or trial—you can still cooperate under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 35(b), which allows prosecutors to file a motion for sentence reduction based on post-conviction substantial assistance.
But at this point, your looking at 10-15% reductions at most, and only if you provide information that leads to new prosecutions. If you just provide cumulative information or testify in cases prosecutors were going to win anyway, you might get 5% or nothing.
Now heres the prisoner’s dilemma: when multiple defendants are charged together, the first to cooperate gets the best deal. The second cooperator gets a moderate deal. The third cooperator gets almost nothing.
Prosecutors don’t need four witnesses saying the same thing—they need one or two strong witnesses. So if you and three co-defendants are all thinking “I’ll wait and see what happens,” the first person to break gets the golden ticket, and everyone else is left fighting for scraps.
This creates a race. Your co-defendant might be sitting in there cell right now thinking the exact same thing your thinking. There attorney might be explaining this same math. And whoever blinks first wins.
The defendants who “stand tall” and refuse to cooperate often end up serving the longest sentences while there co-defendants testify against them and go home early. I’ve seen it happen over and over. Loyalty is expensive in federal court.
Theres also a narrow window right now—early 2025—where cooperation might be worth more then usual. In January 2025, DOJ issued new guidance authorizing prosecutors to offer more generous plea deals to defendants who provide substantial assistance against organized robbery crews. This is a response to rising retail theft and political pressure to “do something” about smash-and-grab robberies.
It won’t last—probably 6-12 months before the policy shifts—but defendants who cooperate now might get better deals then defendants who wait.
One more consideration: if you cooperate and testify, you’ll probably end up in witness protection or administrative segregation in prison, which means protective custody (PC). PC is safer then general population, but its also more isolating—23-hour lockdown, limited programming, no contact with other inmates.
And once your labeled a cooperator, that follows you through the entire federal prison system. Other inmates will know. Your safety is always a concern.
Look, I’m not telling you to cooperate. Thats a deeply personal decision with moral, ethical, and safety implications that go way beyond sentencing math. But you need to understand the economics before making the decision.
Dont let loyalty cost you 20 extra years in federal prison while your co-defendant who flipped is home in 5 years. Real talk: the streets dont respect loyalty to people who wouldn’t be loyal to you. And if your co-defendants are already cooperating (which you won’t know until its to late), your the only one being “loyal” while everyone else is making deals.
Decisions That Matter in the First 72 Hours
The first 72 hours after your federal arrest are critical. This is when defendants make mistakes that cant be undone—statements to agents, consents to searches, identification of co-defendants, acceptance of calls from friends and family (which are recorded).
By hour 73, the damage is often done, and your defense attorney is left trying to suppress evidence or mitigate the harm rather then building a strong defense.
Heres what you need to know about those first 72 hours:
Don’t Talk to Federal Agents Without a Lawyer: This seems obvious, but your going to be tempted. The agents will tell you this is your “chance” to tell your side of the story. There going to say that cooperating now will help you later. There going to imply that if you dont talk, things will be worse for you. They might even say there trying to help you.
They’re not trying to help you. There job is to build a case against you. Everything you say—literally everything—can and will be used against you.
And heres the thing: you cant talk your way out of a federal arrest. If the FBI arrested you, they already have evidence. You’re not going to convince them to let you go by “explaining” what happened. The only thing your going to do is give them more evidence.
Invoke your right to remain silent. Say: “I want a lawyer. I’m not answering questions.” Then stop talking. Dont explain why your not talking. Dont try to sound reasonable. Just stop.
The agents might keep trying. They might act frustrated or disappointed. Ignore them.
Don’t Consent to Searches: If agents ask to search you’re phone, your car, your house, or anything else, say no. Even if you think theres nothing incriminating, say no. Even if you think refusing makes you “look guilty,” say no.
Consenting to a search waives your Fourth Amendment rights, and anything they find—even things you didn’t know where there—becomes admissible evidence.
If agents have a warrant, they don’t need your consent. If they’re asking for consent, its because they dont have a warrant, which means they dont have probable cause. Make them get a warrant. Let you’re attorney challenge the warrant later if its defective.
Dont hand them evidence voluntarily.
Don’t Identify Co-Defendants: Agents will show you photos and ask “Who is this?” or “Do you know this person?” Don’t answer. Identifying co-defendants—even if you think the agents already know who they are—creates evidence that prosecutors will use against you.
It shows your “involvement” in a conspiracy. It connects you to other people. It makes you a witness against others, which means you’ve lost any leverage to cooperate later (because you’ve already given information without getting anything in return).
Just say: “I’m not identifying anyone without a lawyer.”
Don’t Accept Calls From Friends or Family: If your detained at MCC Manhattan or MDC Brooklyn, every phone call your make is recorded—except calls to your attorney. The government will listen to those calls. Prosecutors will get transcripts. And anything you say can be used against you.
Dont talk about the case on the phone. Dont say things like “I didn’t mean for it to happen” or “I didn’t know he had a gun” or “I was just there.” Even vague statements can be twisted into admissions.
Tell you’re family: “I can’t talk about the case on the phone. I’ll explain everything when I see my lawyer.”
Retain a Federal Defense Attorney Immediately: You need a lawyer who practices in federal court—not a state court attorney who “also does federal cases sometimes.” Federal criminal defense is a specialized practice. You need someone who knows the federal sentencing guidelines, understands how SDNY and EDNY prosecutors operate, has relationships with AUSAs (Assistant U.S. Attorneys), and has tried federal cases in front of the judges who might hear your case.
If you cant afford a private attorney, the federal public defender or a CJA panel attorney will be appointed. Federal public defenders are excellent—often better then private attorneys—but there overwhelmed with caseloads. If you can afford private counsel, retain someone immediately.
The earlier your attorney gets involved, the more options you have.
What Happens at Initial Appearance: Within 72 hours of your arrest, you’ll be brought before a magistrate judge for initial appearance. The judge will inform you of the charges, advise you of you’re rights, and make a decision about detention or bail.
If your charged with a Hobbs Act robbery with a firearm, expect the government to argue for detention. The Bail Reform Act creates a presumption that your a danger to the community and a flight risk.
You’re attorney can argue for release, but be realistic: bail is granted in maybe 10-15% of federal armed robbery cases in SDNY and EDNY. If the judge does grant bail, it will likely be a high bond ($250,000+) with strict conditions: GPS monitoring, home confinement, surrender of passport, no contact with co-defendants or witnesses.
More likely, you’ll be detained pending trial. This is crushing psychologically, but its also strategic reality. Knowing your likely to be detained should inform you’re cooperation decision—if your going to cooperate, do it early while you still have maximum leverage, because negotiating from jail for 8-12 months is brutal.
Preserve Cooperation Value: If you think you might cooperate, don’t do anything in the first 72 hours that destroys your value. Dont talk to agents without a cooperation agreement in place. Dont identify co-defendants for free. Dont give a proffer without an attorney negotiating the terms.
Every piece of information you give away without getting something in return is information you cant use as leverage later.
Your attorney can reach out to the AUSA (Assistant U.S. Attorney) handling the case and indicate your interested in cooperation. The AUSA will tell your attorney what there looking for—testimony against specific people, information about other robberies, identities of crew members, location of evidence.
Then you and you’re attorney decide whether cooperation makes sense and negotiate a cooperation agreement before you start talking.
What Your Defense Attorney Won’t Tell You (But Should)
Theres certain realities about federal Hobbs Act prosecutions that defense attorneys sometimes avoid discussing with clients—either because there too uncomfortable, or because they dont want to discourage you from fighting, or because they genuinely dont realize these things themselves.
But you need to know them to make informed decisions:
Challenging the Interstate Commerce Element Is Almost Always a Waste of Money: As I mentioned earlier, courts have interpreted the commerce element so broadly that its almost impossible to win a motion to dismiss based on lack of jurisdiction. If you’re attorney wants to file a motion arguing that robbing a corner store didn’t affect interstate commerce, ask them: “What’s the success rate for this motion in our circuit?”
If there honest, the answer is probably less then 5%.
That doesn’t mean you should never challenge jurisdiction—if theres a genuinely unusual fact pattern, it might be worth it. But in 95% of cases, the commerce element is going to stand, and you’ll have spent $5,000-$10,000 on a motion that was doomed from the start.
Use that money on mitigation evidence, sentencing advocacy, or cooperation negotiations instead.
The Appeal Waiver in You’re Plea Agreement Is Real and Enforceable: Almost every federal plea agreement includes an appeal waiver—you agree to waive you’re right to appeal the conviction and sentence except in very narrow circumstances (ineffective assistance of counsel, prosecutorial misconduct, sentence above the statutory maximum).
Most defendants sign this without understanding what there giving up.
Heres what it means: even if the judge makes errors at sentencing—miscalculates the guidelines, fails to consider mitigating evidence, imposes an unreasonable sentence—you cant appeal. You signed away that right. The only exception is if your attorney was so incompetent that it violated you’re Sixth Amendment right to effective assistance, and proving that is extremely difficult.
Some appeal waivers can be negotiated. You’re attorney might be able to get the AUSA to agree to a narrower waiver that preserves your right to appeal certain issues. But if you don’t negotiate this upfront, your stuck with whatever waiver is in the standard plea agreement.
Supervised Release Doesn’t End When Prison Ends: Federal sentences include a term of supervised release (federal probation) that starts after you finish you’re prison sentence. For Hobbs Act robbery, supervised release is typically 3-5 years. During supervised release, you have to comply with conditions: regular meetings with a probation officer, drug testing, employment requirements, travel restrictions, no contact with certain people.
If you violate supervised release—even in minor ways—you can be sent back to prison. And heres the kicker: the standard of proof for a supervised release violation is preponderance of the evidence, not beyond a reasonable doubt.
That means the judge only has to believe its “more likely then not” that you violated, and you go back to prison for months or years.
I’ve seen defendants violate within 2 years of release and end up serving additional time. The sentence doesn’t end when you walk out of prison—it ends when supervised release is complete. Most defendants dont understand this until there back in custody.
The Federal Discovery Advantage Is Overwhelming: Once the FBI gets involved, the evidence against you multiplies. They have tools state prosecutors dont: cell site location data showing were your phone was during the robbery, financial records showing cash deposits after the robbery, video surveillance from businesses you didn’t even know had cameras, cooperating witnesses who’ve been debriefed for months, and sometimes wiretaps if your part of a crew.
What looked like a weak state case—maybe one eyewitness with credibility problems—becomes an overwhelming federal case with six months of FBI investigation. Your phone pinged off the cell tower near the robbery. Video shows your car in the area. A co-defendant is cooperating and says you planned it together. Financial records show you deposited $5,000 cash two days later.
This is why federal conviction rates are so high (around 90%). By the time your indicted, the government has built a case that’s very hard to beat at trial. Defense attorneys know this, which is why so many federal cases end in plea agreements.
SDNY vs. EDNY Matters More Then You Think: The Southern District of New York (Manhattan) and Eastern District of New York (Brooklyn) have different prosecutorial cultures. SDNY is considered more prestigious, attracts top AUSAs, and tends to take fewer but higher-profile cases. EDNY has a higher volume of robbery cases and more pressure to clear dockets.
In practise, this means EDNY prosecutors are sometimes more willing to negotiate plea deals then SDNY prosecutors. If you’re case is in SDNY, your facing prosecutors who have more time to prepare, more resources, and less incentive to offer generous deals.
This doesn’t mean you cant get a good deal in SDNY—but it means you need to understand the landscape when evaluating offers.
The RICO Trend Is Expanding You’re Exposure: In 2024-2025, federal prosecutors have started charging robbery crews under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) instead of just Hobbs Act violations. RICO adds a 20-year statutory maximum and allows prosecutors to introduce evidence of uncharged robberies as “predicate acts” of the racketeering conspiracy.
This trend started in SDNY and is spreading to other districts. If your part of a crew that committed multiple robberies, prosecutors might charge RICO conspiracy (18 U.S.C. § 1962) in addition to individual Hobbs Act counts.
This complicates the case, increases sentencing exposure, and makes it harder to fight because the evidentiary rules are broader for RICO.
Ask you’re attorney: “Is there any risk of a superseding indictment adding RICO charges?” If the answer is yes, that changes the plea calculus significantly.
The Decision Timeline: What Happens When
Time moves different in federal cases then state cases. The Speedy Trial Act requires trial within 70 days of indictment or initial appearance (whichever is later), but their are lots of exclusions that extend that deadline. In practise, most federal cases take 6-12 months from arrest to resolution.
Heres what that timeline looks like and were decisions need to be made:
Hours 1-72: Critical window. Dont talk to agents. Dont consent to searches. Dont identify co-defendants. Retain a federal defense attorney immediately. Your initial appearance happens within 72 hours.
Week 1-2: Cooperation window opens. If your going to cooperate, this is peak value time. You’re attorney should reach out to the AUSA to gauge interest and negotiate terms. Bail hearing happens (expect detention if firearm was involved).
Week 3-4: Grand jury returns indictment (if you weren’t indicted already). Arraignment happens. Discovery starts (prosecutors turn over evidence). You’re attorney reviews the evidence and starts evaluating the strength of the governments case.
Month 1-2: Plea negotiation window. AUSAs typically make there “first offer” around this time. Your attorney should be discussing cooperation, challenging weak evidence through motions, and negotiating plea terms. If your detained, this is when the psychological pressure of incarceration starts affecting decision-making.
Month 2-3: Motion practice. Defense attorneys file motions to suppress evidence, dismiss counts, or sever defendants. Most motions get denied, but some result in favorable rulings that improve you’re negotiating position.
Month 3-6: Trial preparation. If you haven’t pled guilty, your attorney is preparing for trial: witness interviews, jury selection strategy, opening and closing statements. Prosecutors might make a “final offer” before trial. This is the last chance to plead guilty and get acceptance of responsibility credit (2-3 levels off the guidelines).
Month 6-12: Trial or sentencing. If you go to trial, expect 1-3 weeks of trial followed by 2-3 months until sentencing. If you pled guilty, sentencing happens 2-3 months after the plea.
The key point: early decisions matter more then late decisions. Cooperation in Week 1 is worth way more then cooperation in Month 6. Plea negotiations in Month 1 result in better deals then negotiations in Month 5. Evidence suppressed in Month 2 changes your leverage for the rest of the case.
Dont wait to make strategic decisions—by the time you feel “ready,” you’ve lost leverage.
If your facing federal Hobbs Act robbery charges in New York—whether in the Southern District (Manhattan) or Eastern District (Brooklyn)—you need a defense attorney who understands federal sentencing, has relationships with AUSAs in those districts, and has tried cases in federal court.
The stakes are to high to work with someone who “also does federal cases.” You need someone who specializes in federal criminal defense and knows how SDNY and EDNY operate.
Bottom line: the next 72 hours are critical, the first month is when cooperation has maximum value, and pretrial detention makes everything harder. Make informed decisions early, understand the math, and dont let loyalty cost you decades in federal prison while you’re co-defendants make deals and go home.
Time matters. You’re future depends on decisions you make right now…