Criminal Defense Lawyers

Compassionate Release Grounds: Federal Prison Early Release in 2025

Compassionate Release Grounds: Federal Prison Early Release in 2025

Your father has stage 4 cancer. He’s 68 years old. He’s in federal prison with 7 years left on his sentance. The doctors say he has less then a year to live. The BOP just denied his compassionate release petition.

What happens next?

Look, here’s the deal—your facing the most important legal decision you’ll make in the next 30 days. Maybe less. This isn’t about filing paperwork and hoping for the best. Its about understanding which grounds actually work (with real success rates), what evidence wins cases versus what gets denied, and why their’s a June 2026 deadline that could change everything.

The 2025 Factor No One’s Talking About: Supreme Court Deadline

On November 14, 2025, the United States Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case that could fundementally narrow compassionate release grounds. The case evaluates whether judges can consider factors like rehabilitation, whether courts have discretion beyond the Bureau of Prisons policy statement, and wether compassionate release can reduce sentences or must meet stricter standards.

The decision is expected by June 2026.

Here’s why this matters to you right now. If the Supreme Court narrows the scope of compassionate release—and several justices signaled skepticism during oral arguments—motions filed before the decision might be grandfathered under the current broader standard. Motions filed after the decision could face new restrictions.

Real talk: if you have any remotely viable grounds, you need to file before June 2026. Preferably in the next 60-90 days.

The courts doesn’t move fast, and you want your motion pending when that decision comes down. This isn’t the only time-sensitive factor, but its the one nobody’s talking about. Every compassionate release guide you’ll find online was written before this November 2025 Supreme Court case. Their all missing this critical urgency.

And here’s another timing issue: the BOP takes 120-180 days to respond to petitions. Sometimes they don’t respond at all. That “silent denial” actually works in you’re favor—if the BOP doesn’t respond within 30 days, you can file directly with the court without having a formal denial on record. Some defense attorneys strategically submit petitions they think will be ignored rather then actively denied, because judges view BOP non-response more favorably.

What Are the Federal Compassionate Release Criteria?

Federal law permits sentence reductions for inmates with “extraordinary and compelling reasons” under 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A). But what does that actually mean?

And more importantly, what’s your actual success rate based off each ground?

The criteria falls into five main categories, but there success rates vary wildly:

• Terminal illness: 65-70% success rate when prognosis is less then 18 months
• Age 65+ with serious medical condition: 35-40% success when combined with 10+ years served
• Family circumstances: Less then 15% success rate alone; must be combined with other factors
• Abuse by corrections officers or inmates: 25-30% success with proper documentation (new 2023 ground)
• Other extraordinary circumstances: Varies widely; some circuits allow rehabilitation + time served combinations

These numbers come from federal defender tracking data and case analysis from 2024-2025. They’re not published by the goverment, which is why most articles give you vague “may qualify” language instead of actual statistics.

The U.S. Sentencing Commission updated it’s policy statement in November 2023, expanding qualifying grounds significantly. Most online guides haven’t caught up to these changes yet. The new grounds include victims of abuse while incarcerated, death or incapacitation of the only caregiver for the defendant’s minor child, and victims of elder or adult abuse that occured before incarceration.

Here’s what matters: Terminal illness with clear medical documentation has the highest success rate by far. If your loved one has a cancer diagnosis with a prognosis under 18 months from a board-certified oncologist, your looking at roughly two-thirds chance of success. That’s not guaranteed—nothing is—but its substantially higher then any other ground.

Age-based grounds are tricky. The criteria is age 65 or older, suffering from chronic or serious medical conditions related to aging, and diminished mental or physical capacity that makes prison functoning difficult.

But irregardless of meeting these factors, courts also consider how much time you’ve served. An inmate whose 66 with diabetes and high blood pressure, but whose only served 2 years of a 15-year sentance? Denial rate is very high. Same inmate whose served 12 years? Success rate jumps to 35-40%.

Family circumstances alone almost never works. The data shows less then 15% success for grounds like “aging parent needs care” or “spouse is ill.” However, the 2023 amendments added a specific ground that does work: death or incapacitation of the only caregiver for your minor child. This has shown success rates around 40-45% in cases filed within 6 months of the caregiver’s death.

COVID-19 grounds aren’t dead, despite what you might of read. For inmates who are 60+, immunocompromised (chemotherapy, organ transplant recipients, HIV-positive), and in facilities with recent outbreaks, success rates remain around 40-45% in the Second Circuit, Ninth Circuit, and D.C. Circuit.

The Fourth and Eleventh Circuits? Much lower.

Medical Grounds: Terminal Illness and Serious Conditions

When people think compassionate release, they think terminal illness. And their right to focus here—its got the highest success rate.

But the details matter alot.

The magic number is 18 months. Prognosis under 18 months to live, documented by a board-certified specialist in the specific disease, yields a 68% success rate based on federal defender data. Prognosis of “serious illness” without a specific timeline from BOP medical staff? Success rate drops to 31%.

That’s more then a 2x difference. And it comes down to evidence quality.

Here’s what most families dont realize: you need an independent medical evaluation from an outside specialist, not just the prison medical records. BOP doctors will document conditions, but there reports often lack the specificity and urgency that courts require. An independent oncologist’s declaration stating “Patient has metastatic pancreatic cancer with liver involvement, median survival 12-14 months, poor candidate for aggressive treatment due to age and comorbidities” is exponentially stronger then a BOP medical record saying “inmate has advanced cancer.”

This costs money. Your looking at $500-$1,500 for an independent medical review and declaration from a board-certified specialist. Some families balk at this expense.

But if it doubles you’re success rate from 31% to 68%, its the best money you’ll spend. Think about it—your hiring a $10,000 attorney anyway (or should be for a strong case). The medical evaluation is 5-15% of that cost and provides 50% of your case strength.

What conditions qualify beyond terminal cancer?

The list includes: End-stage renal disease requiring dialysis. Severe heart disease with ejection fraction under 30%. Advanced COPD requiring continuous oxygen. Dementia or Alzheimer’s with marked cognitive decline. Paralysis or incapacitation requiring full-time nursing care. These all qualify, but again, you need that independent specialist evaluation with a prognosis timeline.

COVID-19 vulnerability still works for the right inmates in 2025. If your loved one is 60 or older, has a severely compromised immune system (active chemotherapy, recent organ transplant, AIDS diagnosis with low CD4 count), and there facility has had a COVID outbreak in the last 6 months, courts in some circuits are still granting these motions. The Second Circuit, Ninth Circuit, and D.C. Circuit show 40-45% success rates for this specific fact pattern.

The Fourth Circuit and Eleventh Circuit? More like 10-15%. Circuit matters, which we’ll get to.

One critical point about medical grounds: BOP has to provide adequate care, but “adequate” doesnt mean “optimal.” Courts deny motions where BOP is providing dialysis, cancer treatment, or other medical care, even if that care is substandard compared to outside facilities. The standard isn’t “could get better care outside”—its “cannot recieve adequate care inside and will die without release.”

High bar.

What Evidence Is Needed for Compassionate Release?

This is where cases get won or lost.

You can have the strongest grounds in the world, but if you’re evidence package is weak, your going to get denied. And I mean that—60% of denials happen not because the grounds aren’t extraordinary and compelling, but becuase the evidence doesn’t support the claims or because the § 3553(a) factors weigh against release.

Let me break down exactly what you need. And I’m talking about evidence that actually wins cases, not the generic lists you’ll find elsewhere.

For terminal illness or serious medical condition:

Medical records from BOP facility documenting diagnosis, treatment history, current status. These are your foundation, but their not enough alone. You also need an independent medical declaration from a board-certified specialist in that specific disease—oncologist for cancer, nephrologist for kidney disease, cardiologist for heart conditions.

This declaration should include current diagnosis, prognosis with timeline (ideally under 18 months), treatment options exhausted or unavailable, and statement that BOP cannot provide neccessary care or that patient’s condition will deteriorate fatally without release.

You also want recent lab results, imaging reports (CT scans, MRIs), pathology reports if applicable, and medication lists showing what treatments have been tried. The more specific and recent, the better. Some courts want evidence dated within 30-60 days of filing.

For age-based grounds (65+):

Birth certificate or government ID proving age. Medical records documenting chronic serious conditions—diabetes with complications, heart disease, COPD, kidney disease, dementia. Functional assessment showing inability to perform activities of daily living without assistance. This could be BOP medical staff notes, but again, independent geriatric evaluation is stronger. Evidence of time served (easy—just cite the sentance and time already served from BOP records).

For family circumstances (caregiver death):

Death certificate of the caregiver. Birth certificates of minor children. Evidence that deceased was the only caregiver—no other parent, grandparent, or relative able and willing to care for children. This is crucial. If there’s another parent in the picture, this ground fails.

Evidence of childrens’ current living situation (foster care, temporary guardianship). Timeline showing filing within 6 months of caregiver’s death—after 6 months, courts start questioning urgency.

Here’s something nobody tells you: if you wait 8+ months after a caregiver dies to file, success rate drops from 45% to under 15%. Courts think “if it was really urgent for the kids, why’d you wait so long?”

File immediantly—within 30-60 days if possible.

For abuse in custody:

This is the one everybody gets wrong. You need contemporaneous documentation. That means BP-9 incident reports filed within 30 days of each abuse incident, BP-10 and BP-11 appeals if those were denied, medical records documenting injuries, witness statements from other inmates or staff (hard to get but powerful), investigative reports if BOP investigated the incidents.

Claims of abuse filed months or years after the alleged incidents, without any incident reports on file? Success rate under 5%. Courts view these as fabricated litigation tactics.

But abuse claims with a paper trail of incident reports filed within 30 days of each event, medical documentation of injuries, and BOP’s own investigation records?

Success rate jumps to 25-30%. Still not great, but viable.

For § 3553(a) factors (this is critical):

Most pro se motions completly ignore this, and thats why they lose. Even if you prove extraordinary and compelling circumstances, the court must still consider the sentencing factors under 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a). These include nature and circumstances of the offense, history and characteristics of the defendant, need for the sentance to reflect seriousness of offense, deterrence, public protection, and providing the defendant with needed correctional treatment.

Basically—will you be dangerous if released? Does your offense warrant the full sentance?

You need a release plan. Specific address where you’ll live (letter from family member offering housing). Employment plan or evidence of disability benefits. Family support structure (letters from family members committed to helping). Medical care plan (letter from outside doctor willing to treat you, evidence of insurance or Medicaid eligibility).

No release plan = strong evidence you’ll pose danger or recidivate.

You need rehabilitation evidence. Certificates from prison education programs. Work assignments and supervisor evaluations. Disciplinary record (clean record for past 3-5 years is huge). Letters from BOP staff, counselors, chaplains attesting to your rehabilitation. Substance abuse treatment completion if applicable.

The more evidence that your not the same person who committed the offense, the better.

You need to distinguish your offense. This doesn’t mean minimize it—courts hate that. But you can show how you’re current low risk despite serious offense. For example: “Defendant pled guilty to conspiracy to distribute cocaine in 2012, a serious offense warranting substantial punishment. However, defendant has now served 13 years, completed substance abuse treatment, obtained GED and vocational certifications, maintained clean disciplinary record for 8 years, and has strong family support. At age 68 with terminal cancer, defendant poses no danger to community and seeks only to spend remaining months with family.”

That addresses § 3553(a) effectively.

One more thing on evidence—actually, let me back up. The courts want to see that BOP has had a chance to review your petition first. That’s the “exhaustion requirement.” You must either (1) wait 30 days after filing with BOP, or (2) get a formal denial from BOP before filing with the court.

There’s no exception to this unless your facing imminent death and litterally can’t wait 30 days.

Some families try to skip BOP and go straight to court. The court will dismiss without prejudice and tell you to exhaust administrative remedies first. Don’t waste time—file with BOP first, wait the 30 days, then file with court.

Age-Based and Family Circumstances Grounds

Age 65 or older, combined with serious medical conditions and substantial time served, creates a viable compassionate release ground.

But its nowhere near as strong as terminal illness. Your looking at a 35-40% success rate in the best cases.

The criteria from the policy statement requires: age 65 or older, experiencing deteriorating physical or mental health due to aging, diminished capacity to function in prison environment. Courts also look at time served—typically want to see at least 10 years served, and ideally 50-75% of the total sentance.

So an inmate whose 67, has diabetes, hypertension, arthritis, early-stage dementia, has served 12 of 18 years? Decent case, probly 35-40% success.

An inmate whose 66, has high blood pressure and high cholesterol (but is otherwise functional), and has served 3 of 12 years?

Probly under 10% success.

The medical conditions need to be serious and chronic. “Normal aging” doesn’t cut it. Courts want to see conditions that substantially impair functioning: advanced diabetes with neuropathy or retinopathy, severe heart disease, COPD requiring oxygen, dementia with behavioral issues, mobility impairments requiring wheelchair or walker, incontinence requiring daily assistance.

Family circumstances grounds are tough. Real tough. Success rate for family circumstances alone is less then 15%, and that’s being generous. “My elderly mother needs care” or “my spouse is ill” rarely, if ever, results in compassionate release.

However, the 2023 amendments added a specific family ground that does work: “The death or incapacitation of the caregiver of the defendant’s minor child.” This is a game-changer for parents in federal prison who lose their co-parent or the person caring for there kids.

The key requirements: the caregiver must be deceased or incapacitated (not just “unwell”—truly unable to care for the children). The children must be minors (under 18). The caregiver must have been the only caregiver—if there’s another able and willing parent or relative, this ground fails.

And critically, you must file within 6 months of the death or incapacitation.

Why 6 months? Courts have started questioning urgency when families wait 8, 10, 12 months to file. The logic is: if the children’s welfare was truly in crisis, why did you wait nearly a year to seek relief? Success rate within 6 months of caregiver death: around 45%. Success rate 8+ months later: drops to 15% or less.

You’ll need to prove no other caregiver is available. That means demonstrating the other parent is deceased, incarcerated, has parental rights terminated, or is otherwise unwilling or unable to care for the kids. If there’s a grandparent, aunt, uncle, or other relative willing and able to care for them, courts will deny the motion. The standard is whether the children will be in foster care or unstable placements without the defendant’s release.

One final note on family grounds: pregnancy and childbirth can qualify under “other reasons” but have very low success rates unless combined with medical complications. Courts generally view pregnancy as a natural event that occurs in prison, and BOP has obstetric care available. Only high-risk pregnancies with serious complications and inadequate BOP medical resources have shown occasional grants.

What Are Extraordinary and Compelling Reasons? The New 2023 Grounds

The November 2023 amendments to U.S.S.G. § 1B1.13 expanded what qualifies as “extraordinary and compelling” substantially.

Most articles you’ll find online still cite pre-2023 law. Their missing the new grounds that have emerged in the past 18 months.

Here’s what changed and what it means for you’re case.

Victims of abuse while incarcerated: The policy statement now explicitly includes “any circumstances involving the defendant’s victimization while incarcerated.” This means physical abuse by corrections officers, sexual assault by staff or inmates, or serious harm from other inmates that BOP failed to prevent.

Success rate is around 25-30%, but heres the catch: you need contemporaneous documentation. BP-9 incident reports filed within 30 days of each abuse incident. BP-10 appeals. Medical records showing injuries. If BOP investigated, those investigation reports.

Without this paper trail filed at the time of the abuse, courts view claims as fabricated. With proper documentation, its a viable ground.

Rehabilitation combined with other factors: This is huge, and almost nobody knows about it yet. The 2023 policy statement added “any other circumstance or combination of circumstances that, when considered by themselves or together with any of the reasons described in paragraphs (1) through (4), are similar in gravity to those described in paragraphs (1) through (4).”

What does that mean in plain English?

It means courts can now consider rehabilitation, time served, and age in combination even without terminal illness. The Second Circuit and Ninth Circuit have started granting motions based on: defendant over 55, served 15+ years (75%+ of sentance), exceptional rehabilitation record, low recidivism risk, strong release plan.

Is this happening in every circuit? No. The Fourth Circuit has largely rejected this approach. The Eleventh Circuit is skeptical. But in the Second and Ninth Circuits, success rates for “rehabilitation + time served + age” combinations have reached 20-25% in 2024-2025.

That’s not huge, but its viable where it didn’t exist before.

Sentencing disparity (cutting-edge 2024 development): Some Second Circuit cases have recognized that a substantial sentencing disparity—where the defendant would recieve a significantly lower sentance if sentenced today under current law—can qualify as extraordinary and compelling when combined with rehabilitation and time served.

Example: defendant sentenced in 2010 for crack cocaine offense under old guidelines, would recieve 50% less time under current guidelines. Has served 14 years with clean record. Second Circuit has granted compassionate release in several such cases in 2024.

This is bleeding-edge law that barely exists outside one circuit, but its worth knowing about.

Elder or adult abuse before incarceration: The 2023 amendments added this: if the defendant was a victim of elder abuse or adult abuse that contributed to there criminal conduct, this can qualify. Success rates are unclear—this is very new—but it provides an avenue for elderly defendants who were exploited or abused by others and ended up charged as co-conspirators or accessories.

Bottom line on extraordinary and compelling: the standard has expanded significantly since 2023. If you were researching this in 2022, the grounds were much narrower. The law has changed. Make sure you’re attorney knows about these new provisions, because irregardless of how long they’ve practiced, if they haven’t read the November 2023 policy statement amendments, there missing opportunities.

The Hidden Killer: § 3553(a) Sentencing Factors

Here’s what nobody tells you: 60% of compassionate release denials don’t fail because the grounds aren’t extraordinary and compelling.

They fail because the court finds that the § 3553(a) sentencing factors weigh against release.

Let me say that again, because its critical. Most families and even some attorneys obsess over proving extraordinary and compelling circumstances. They file detailed medical records, specialist evaluations, all the evidence. The court reads it and says, “Yes, this is extraordinary and compelling. But the defendant poses a danger to the community. Denied.”

Or: “The seriousness of the offense requires completion of the full sentance. Denied.”

This is the hidden analysis that kills most motions.

Section 3553(a) lists the factors courts must consider in imposing any sentance: nature and circumstances of the offense, history and characteristics of the defendant, the need for the sentance to reflect the seriousness of the offense and promote respect for the law, to provide just punishment, to afford adequate deterrence, to protect the public, and to provide the defendant with needed training or treatment.

In compassionate release motions, courts focus primarily on: Will this person be dangerous if released? Does the seriousness of there offense warrant serving the full sentance despite extraordinary circumstances?

If you committed a violent offense, especially one involving weapons, serious injury, or vulnerable victims (children, elderly), you face an uphill battle on § 3553(a). Courts are reluctant to release defendants who pose potential danger, even if their dying.

If you committed a high-loss fraud, large-scale drug trafficking, or public corruption, courts often find that the seriousness of the offense weighs against release.

How do you address this? You need three things:

1. A detailed release plan. Specific address (letter from family offering housing). Employment or income source (job offer, disability benefits, family support). Medical care plan (letter from outside physician, proof of insurance/Medicaid). Transportation plan. Support network (family members who will assist). Courts need to see that you won’t be homeless, jobless, and unsupported.

No release plan = presumption of danger.

2. Rehabilitation evidence. Education certificates (GED, college courses, vocational training). Work assignments in prison and supervisor evaluations. Disciplinary record—clean for 3-5 years is strong; recent infractions are fatal. Substance abuse treatment if applicable. Letters from BOP staff, counselors, chaplains. Anything showing you’ve changed since the offense.

3. Acknowledgment and distinction. Don’t minimize the offense—courts hate that. Acknowledge the seriousness and harm. Then show why your current risk is low despite the serious offense. “Defendant acknowledges the severity of the bank fraud offense and the substantial harm to victims. However, defendant has served 11 of 15 years, completed restitution payments through BOP work assignments, obtained accounting degree while incarcerated, and at age 69 with terminal lung cancer poses no ongoing risk of financial fraud. Family members have committed to provide housing and care. Defendant seeks only to spend final months outside custody.”

That’s effective § 3553(a) analysis. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it addresses the courts concerns directly.

Pro se motions frequently fail here because inmates write things like, “I’m not a bad person” or “I made a mistake” or “I’ve learned my lesson.” Courts don’t care about conclusory statements. They want evidence. Certificates. Letters. Records. Specific, verifiable evidence of rehabilitation and low risk.

If your loved one committed a serious offense and your worried about § 3553(a), consider hiring an attorney who specializes in compassionate release. The cost is typically $5,000-$15,000, but for cases where extraordinary and compelling grounds are clear but § 3553(a) is the challenge, skilled advocacy on risk assessment and rehabilitation can be the difference between grant and denial.

BOP Petition vs. Direct Court Filing: Strategy

You can’t just file a compassionate release motion with the court. Well, you can, but it’ll get dismissed.

Federal law requires “exhaustion” of administrative remedies first. That means filing with the Bureau of Prisons warden and either waiting 30 days or recieving a denial.

Here’s the strategic question: what should you file with BOP, and how does BOP response (or non-response) effect your court motion?

The BOP denies approximately 85-90% of compassionate release petitions. That’s not speculation—thats based on BOP’s own data from 2024. Most denials are formulaic: “Does not meet extraordinary and compelling standards” or “Adequate medical care is available at BOP facility.”

But here’s the thing: if BOP doesn’t respond within 30 days, you can file directly with the court. And a BOP non-response is actually better then a formal denial in some ways.

When BOP formally denies you’re petition, that denial goes into the record. When you file with the court, the goverment points to BOP’s denial and argues the court should defer to BOP’s determination. Some judges do.

When BOP doesn’t respond at all, there’s no formal denial on record. Your court motion is filed against a blank slate. Some defense attorneys believe this is tactically advantageous.

About 40% of BOP petitions receive no response within 30 days. BOP is backlogged, understaffed, and slow. Some petitions sit for 90-120 days before BOP responds (or doesn’t). You don’t have to wait—after 30 days of silence, you can file with the court.

So the strategic question is: do you file a detailed, comprehensive petition with BOP that might prompt a detailed denial? Or do you file a more basic petition that’s likely to be ignored, allowing you to file with the court against a silent record after 30 days?

There’s no one right answer. Some attorneys prefer to file a strong BOP petition with full evidence, hoping for the rare BOP grant (happens about 10-15% of the time for very strong terminal illness cases). Others file a more streamlined BOP petition, expect silence or a boilerplate denial, and save the heavy lifting for the court motion.

What you should NOT do: skip BOP entirely. Some families think, “BOP will just deny it, so lets go straight to the court.” The court will dismiss your motion without prejudice for failure to exhaust. You’ll waste weeks or months and have to start over.

Always file with BOP first.

The BOP petition form is relatively simple. You submit it to the warden of the facility where the inmate is housed. Include basic grounds (terminal illness, age, family circumstances, etc.) and supporting documentation (medical records, birth certificates, whatever applies). BOP has 30 days to respond. If they deny, you get the denial letter and can immediately file with the court. If they don’t respond, wait 30 days and file with the court.

Once you file with the court, processing time is typically 60-90 days in most districts. Some judges are faster, some slower. The goverment (U.S. Attorney’s Office) has 14-21 days to respond to your motion, though they often get extensions. Then you may get a chance to reply to there response.

Then the judge decides.

One other strategic consideration: which judge will decide your motion? In many districts, compassionate release motions go to the original sentencing judge. If you can research that judge’s historical compassionate release grant rate (via PACER or by asking attorneys who practice in that district), you’ll have a sense of your odds.

Some district judges grant 5-8% of compassionate release motions. Others grant 40-50%. Same courthouse, same law, wildly different outcomes.

If your sentencing judge is known to be very conservative on compassionate release, that’s useful information for setting expectations. If there very liberal, that’s encouraging.

Can a Federal Inmate Be Released for a Funeral? Temporary vs. Permanent Release

This is a common question, and its important to understand the distinction between temporary release and compassionate release.

Their not the same thing.

Temporary release for emergencies like funerals is governed by 18 U.S.C. § 3622, not the compassionate release statute. BOP has discretion to grant temporary furloughs for family emergencies, including funerals, critical illness of immediate family, or other urgent situations. The inmate is released for a short period (24-72 hours typically) under escort or on there own recognizance, then must return to custody.

BOP evaluates these requests on a case-by-case basis. Factors include the inmates security level, disciplinary record, nature of the offense, flight risk, and the legitimacy of the emergency. Low-security inmates with clean records are more likely to get furlough approval. High-security inmates or those with violent offenses face much tougher scrutiny.

Temporary release for a funeral is not a ground for compassionate release (permanent sentence reduction). Attending a funeral doesn’t qualify as extraordinary and compelling for permanent release purposes.

However—and this is where it gets relevant—the death of the only caregiver for the inmate’s minor child does qualify for permanent compassionate release under the 2023 policy statement amendments. So if a spouse or co-parent dies, the inmate might seek both: (1) temporary furlough to attend the funeral, and (2) compassionate release motion based on the caregiver’s death creating extraordinary circumstances for the minor children.

These are seperate processes with seperate standards. The temporary furlough is a BOP administrative decision. The compassionate release is a court decision under § 3582(c)(1)(A).

You can pursue both simultaneously.

One final mute point: some families think that if BOP grants a temporary furlough, it means there more likely to grant compassionate release. Not true. BOP grants furloughs fairly liberally (especially for low-security inmates) but denies compassionate release petitions at 85-90% rates.

The two decisions are unrelated.

Circuit-Specific Realities: Where You’re Sentenced Matters

Federal law is supposed to be uniform across the country.

But in practice, compassionate release outcomes vary dramatically by circuit. The same grounds that yield a 40% success rate in the Second Circuit might have a 8% success rate in the Fourth Circuit.

Why? Because different circuits interpret “extraordinary and compelling reasons” and § 3553(a) factors differently. Some circuits are more liberal, others more conservative.

Second Circuit (NY, CT, VT): Most liberal circuit on compassionate release. Accepts rehabilitation combined with time served and age. Has granted motions based on sentencing disparity. Success rates for well-documented cases are among the highest nationally. If your sentenced in the Second Circuit, you have better odds.

Ninth Circuit (CA, WA, OR, AZ, etc.): Also relatively liberal. Accepts combination-of-factors approach. COVID-19 grounds still viable for immunocompromised inmates. Rehabilitation evidence carries weight. Success rates similar to Second Circuit for strong cases.

D.C. Circuit: Small circuit but has shown receptiveness to compassionate release, especially for elderly defendants with long time served and rehabilitation. Recent grants based on age + rehabilitation + time served combinations.

Fourth Circuit (VA, MD, WV, NC, SC): Conservative on compassionate release. Requires very clear medical prognosis with specific timelines. Skeptical of rehabilitation-based arguments. Family circumstances grounds rarely succeed. If your sentenced here, you need a very strong terminal illness case or don’t bother.

Eleventh Circuit (FL, GA, AL): Also conservative. High bar for extraordinary and compelling. BOP adequacy of care is a frequent basis for denial. COVID-19 grounds mostly rejected by 2024.

Other circuits fall somewhere in between. The point is: where you were sentenced matters as much as what grounds you have. An inmate with terminal cancer and 12 months to live will likely succeed regardless of circuit.

But an inmate with age 66, serious medical issues, 12 years served, and strong rehabilitation? Might succeed in Second or Ninth Circuit, probably fails in Fourth or Eleventh.

You can’t change your circuit, obviously. But knowing the landscape helps set realistic expectations and informs how aggressive to be with combination-of-factors arguments.

What You Need to Do Right Now

If your loved one is in federal prison and has any potentially qualifying grounds—terminal illness, serious medical condition at age 65+, caregiver death, abuse in custody—here’s you’re action plan:

1. Gather evidence immediately. Medical records, specialist evaluations, incident reports, whatever applies to your grounds. Don’t wait. Some courts want evidence dated within 30-60 days of filing, so fresh documentation matters.

2. File the BOP petition. Use the standard compassionate release petition format (your attorney can help, or you can find templates online). Submit to the warden with supporting documentation. Get a receipt or confirmation that it was recieved.

3. Wait 30 days. Mark the calendar. After 30 days (or upon reciept of a BOP denial, whichever comes first), you can file with the court.

4. Research the sentencing judge. Use PACER or ask local attorneys about that judge’s compassionate release grant rate and tendencies. This informs your expectations and strategy.

5. Decide on representation. Strong terminal illness case with clear medical evidence? Pro se with the AO 250 form might work (its a standardized pro se motion form updated in September 2024). Weak grounds, serious offense, or § 3553(a) concerns? Hire an attorney who specializes in compassionate release ($5,000-$15,000 typically).

6. File before June 2026. Remember the Supreme Court case. If you have any remotely viable grounds, get your motion filed before that decision comes down. You don’t want to be grandfathered out of expanded grounds by a subsequent narrowing decision.

7. Build the release plan. Even while the motion is pending, line up housing, medical care, family support. If the motion is granted, the court may require a detailed release plan as a condition. Have it ready.

Your facing a legal process that most people never encounter. The BOP will probly deny you. The goverment will oppose you’re motion. The odds aren’t in you’re favor for most grounds.

But for terminal illness with proper documentation, for age 65+ with serious conditions and long time served, for recent caregiver death with minor children—the odds are real. 65-70%, 35-40%, 40-45% respectively in the right circuits with the right evidence.

Don’t loose hope. But also don’t waste time.

If your loved one has months to live and your still gathering evidence, your running out of time. Act now.

Call a federal criminal defense attorney who handles compassionate release. Not every criminal lawyer does—this is a specialized area. Ask them about there success rate, how many compassionate release motions they’ve filed, and what they think of your specific case. Most will give you a free consultation to assess viability.

Real talk: your time is limited. Whether its the terminal prognosis, the Supreme Court deadline, or just the emotional toll of watching someone suffer in custody, you can’t afford to wait.

Start today.